current Situation
The civil war has entered its third year, with death toll estimates suggesting over 150,000 civilians may have been killed through bombardments, massacres, starvation and disease Council on Foreign Relations Wikipedia. Nearly 13 million people have been displaced, including 8.6 million within Sudan Sudan Crisis Explained, making this the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded How RSF is adopting Israel’s ‘template for genocide’ in Sudan | Sudan war News | Al Jazeera
Main Causes of the War:
The war is really over a power struggle between two military factions who neither can agree on a path forward following the 2021 coup. The war began in April 2023 between:
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) – The official military by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – A paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti).
The main issues that led to the war were disagreements over the integration of RSF into a single army, military divestment from lucrative economic sectors, and the potential for soldiers to face justice for their abuses (After a year of war in Sudan, what is the situation now? | Conflict News | Al Jazeera). The two factions escalated when they could not agree to terms of transition to civilian rule in Sudan.
Who Gains from the Conflict
There are a number of regional and international players with interests
The External Support Networks:
Since its onset, the SAF has profited from external support. In addition to financial support, Egypt, Turkey, Russia and Iran are sending advanced weapons and drones.
The RSF’s main benefactor, the United Arab Emirates, sent weapons and fuel, and Sudan has asserted the UAE supplied RSF Chinese-made weaponry Two Years of War in Sudan: How the SAF is benefiting
Economic Interests:
The conflict enables various actors to exercise control over Sudan’s valuable resources, especially gold mining and agricultural areas, without civilian oversight or accountability to a democratically elected body.
Expert Recommendations
Peace-making efforts are extremely challenging. Peace efforts made by the United States, Saudi Arabia and the African Union have produced no material outcomes Conflict Watchlist 2025: Sudan – ACLED.
Notable Expert Recommendations:
Ceasefire and Humanitarian Access: Stop fighting immediately so humanitarian aid can be delivered and civilians can be protected.
Regional Mediation: Increased involvement from the AU, IGAD, and neighboring countries, like South Sudan, in mediation.
International Pressure: Coordinated pressures and sanctions on external supporters to cut arms flows to both sides.
Post-Conflict Governance: Experts stressed that neither the RSF nor the SAF would lead a post-war Sudan, and that inclusive civilian leadership needs to established.
Accountability Mechanisms: Transitional justice processes to address war crimes and human rights violations.
Economic Reconstruction: Plans for long-term infrastructure rebuilding and transparent resource governance.
The nature of the conflict, which involves cross-border fighting and destabilization of neighboring countries, make resolutions particularly complicated. Experts emphasized that any sustainable solution needs to address the underlying causes of military supremacy over civilian governance and establish a mechanism to facilitate democratic transition. Please verify any claims.
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