• Israel just executed a very public bombing campaign of both Iranian nuclear targeting facilities and military sites, where U.S. intelligence and logistics worked together in support of the Israeli cause; but Israeli leadership, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, wants it known that Israel could take-out even heavily buried facilities, such as Fordow, without the intervention of the U.S. New York Post.
• While many experts agree that Israel could substantially delay, or damage, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, or delay their breakout timeline by a year or more, it is unlikely that Israel can completely neutralize the Iranian nuclear program without U.S. access to long-range penetrating munitions, like bomb carrier bombing Fordow. • Israel’s strategic calculus is an evolution of Israel’s “mowing the grass” doctrine that is designed to iteratively, and largely successfully, target Iran’s capabilities, while avoiding occupation or regime change
Vox.
What Could Israel Do Without U.S. Support?
Options
1. Precision airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure using Israeli aircraft and intelligence.
2. Targeted assassinations of key personnel in Iran’s IRGC, nuclear program, or political leadership using covert special operations or drone strikes.
3. Disruption of missile and drone facilities, command-and-control centers, or ballistic production sites.
4. Covert sabotage or cyber operations, with the intent of degrading Iran’s military functionality, without necessitating escalation.
What Are the Experts Saying?
Strategic & Operational Assessment
• Atlantic Council / Raz Zimmt: Israel does not have the capacity to destroy a deeply buried facility such as Fordow alone, but it can still create a significant delay in Iran’s program and weaken its nuclear leadership. The Scottish Sun+15Atlantic Council+15anixneuseis.gr+15Al Arabiyaanixneuseis.gr
• RAND analysts: Israel sees this moment as their last opportunity to take action because they believe that diplomacy and U.S. negotiations have failed. They want to create punitive damage to Iran’s regime and military to freeze future escalations rand.org.
• Chatham House: Israeli strikes aimed at leadership, nuclear, and missile infrastructure and the Israeli avoided civilian targets facilitating indirect paths of de-escalation and avoiding regime level strikes
Al Arabiya.
• Amos Yadlin (former IDF intel chief): A strike limited to narrow nuclear targets is not going to ignite a full-blown regional war. A strike at the regime-level might threaten the Iranian regime’s survival & provoke further escalation wallstreetjournal.com+15timesofisrael.com+15anixneuseis.gr+15.
Strategic Risks & Limits
• U.S. expert commentary (i.e. Atlantic Council, Politico, others): Israel does not have the long-range capacity or munitions payload to independently destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Israel’s air defense structure, fuel logistics and bomber limitations constrain their ability to conduct a solo attack The Hill.
• Iranian analysts: Neither Iran or Israel actually wants a full-scale war. Their tit-for-tat engagements are deliberate, calibrating escalation & deterrence tass.com+1Reddit+1.
• Experts on escalation dynamics: A long exchange of missiles will eventually stress Israel’s air-defenses. Limitations of defense fatigue, economic constraints may impact consistent unilateral action.
Summary: What Israel Can and Can’t Do
Capability without U.S. support Feasibility Expert takeaway
Precision airstrikes on unguarded targets Feasible Delay their nuclear timeline by a year or more
Targeted killings May occur through covert operations Disruption of leadership and IRGC command
Attacking deeply buried targets Limited Hard (without Kinetic occupation or regime removal is unrealistic and requires much larger resources and international risk.
Strategic Takeaways for Israel Acting Alone
• Israel is likely to continue using precision air and covert operations, rather than occupying or invading
• Experts caution that without U.S. logistical support (especially long-range strikes and intelligence) Israel can delay, but not destroy, Iran’s nuclear capability.
• Iranian response is limited by Iranian calculus: if Iran retaliates directly and at scale, then it could risk regime downfall or, instead, an escalation of chaos.
• Israeli war doctrine now has weight on the deterrent posture as a calibrated military message rather than regional conflict.
Human Expert Consensus
• Some in Israel assume direct strikes – even against Fordow – can be done independently of the U.S. Some outside experts doubt any actual possibility. Redditanixneuseis. Reddit. Atlantic Council. foreignpolicy.com.
• Chatham House & RAND experts see Israel’s actions at present somehow (and may intentionally be) purposeful and limited, and limited to coercive alone, but in terms of deterrent and messaging rather than collapse or regime change.
• Iranian observers mainly with a desire to avoid war at full hostility, or chaos, follow their own norms of retaliation to have demonstrative deterrents Chatham house.
tass.com
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