Hordhac
Bariga Dhexe ayaa markale noqday xarunta kulul ee siyaasadda iyo dagaalka istaraatiijiga ah. Iyadoo dunida oo dhan ay eegayso heshiis xabbad-joojin cusub oo ay la sheegay in uu gadaal ka riixayo Donald Trump, ayaa dhaqdhaqaaq milatari oo aad u xoog badan laga dareemayaa cirka gobolka. Warbixinno isdaba joog ah oo ay daabaceen Newsweek, The National Interest, iyo Army Recognition ayaa muujinaya in diyaarado badan oo KC-135 Stratotanker ah lagu daabulay saldhigga Al Udeid Air Base ee Qatar – xarunta ugu weyn ee ciidamada cirka Mareykanka ee gobolka.
Laakiin maxay tani ka dhigan tahay? Maxaa ku jira “qodobada sirta ah” ee heshiiska Trump? Muxuu yahay doorka Mareykanka ee ka dambeeya xabbad-joojintan, iyo maxay khubaradu ka sheegayaan kororka awoodda hawada ee gobolka?
1. Heshiiska Xabbad-joojinta ee Trump – Qodobada sirta ah iyo doodaha ka dhalatay
Ilo diblomaasiyadeed oo dhow ayaa sheegay in maamulka Trump uu si gaar ah u soo bandhigay qorshe “xabbad-joojin la dheereyn karo” oo ku saabsan Gaza iyo Israel. Qorshahan waxaa lagu sheegay qodobo aan weli la shaacin, oo ay ku jiraan:
- in ciidamada Israel ay dib uga laabtaan qaybo ka mid ah Gaza;
- in la sii daayo dad la haystay;
- in la sameeyo maamul kumeel-gaar ah oo caalami ah oo maamula dekedaha iyo xudduudaha.
Inkasta oo heshiiska lagu soo bandhigay si nabadeed, haddana falanqeeyayaasha siyaasadda Bariga Dhexe waxay sheegeen in uu leeyahay “qodobbo qarsoon” oo siinaya Maraykanka awood dheeraad ah oo milatari iyo dhaqaale oo ku saabsan ilaha muhiimka ah ee gobolka.
2. Dhaqdhaqaaqa diyaaradaha KC-135 – Awood ciidan mise farriin siyaasadeed?
Warbixinnada Newsweek iyo The National Interest waxay caddeeyeen in tobanaan diyaaradood oo KC-135R/T Stratotanker ah laga diiwaangeliyey iyagoo ka tagaya Mareykanka kuna sii jeeda Al Udeid, Qatar.
Diyaaradaha noocan ah waa kuwa shidaal ku siiya diyaaradaha kale ee hawada – taas oo kordhisa awoodda hawlgalka ee diyaaradaha dagaalka.
Khubarada difaaca ayaa tilmaamay in tani aysan ahayn dhaqdhaqaaq caadi ah. Mid ka mid ah khubarada Mareykanka ee laga soo xigtay Army Recognition ayaa yiri:
“Marka aad aragto KC-135-yo badan oo isku mar u socda hal jiho, waa calaamad cad oo muujinaysa in awood hawadeed la diyaarinayo – ha noqoto deterence ama diyaar-garow hawlgal dhab ah.”
Sidaas darteed, diyaaradaha lagu daabulay Qatar waxay noqon karaan fariin: Mareykanku diyaar buu u yahay inuu difaaco danihiisa iyo xulafadiisa haddii xaaladdu isku beddesho dagaal buuxa.
3. Ciidamada la geeyay Israa’iil – 200 askari iyo hawsha kormeerka
Warbaahinta caalamka, oo ay ku jiraan Associated Press iyo The Guardian, ayaa xaqiijisay in ilaa 200 askari oo Mareykan ah loo diray Israa’iil.
Ciidamadan ayaa lagu sheegay in aysan qayb ka noqon doonin dagaal toos ah, balse ay noqonayaan kormeerayaal iyo isuduweyaal si ay u hubiyaan hirgelinta heshiiska xabbad-joojinta iyo bixinta gargaarka bini’aadannimo.
Xarunta lagu kormeeri doono heshiiskan ayaa la filayaa inay noqoto mid caalami ah oo ay ku jiraan wakiillo ka socda Qaramada Midoobay, Mareykanka, iyo dalal kale oo carbeed.
4. Qatar – xarunta istaraatiijiga ah ee duullaanka iyo nabadda
Qatar, gaar ahaan garoonka Al Udeid, waa xarunta ugu weyn ee ciidamada Mareykanka ee Bariga Dhexe.
Waxaa halkaas ku sugan kumannaan askari iyo boqolaal diyaaradood oo kala duwan.
Marka diyaaradaha KC-135 la geeyo, waxay si buuxda u taageerayaan hawlgallada dagaal ama duulimaadyada gargaarka ee gobolka.
Khubarada falanqeeya arrimaha difaaca waxay sheegayaan in Qatar ay noqotay “bartamaha siyaasadda hawada ee Maraykanka ee Bariga Dhexe”.
5. Aragtida khubarada iyo culimada falanqaynta
Khubarada iyo culimada siyaasadda caalamiga ah waxay si isku mid ah u arkaan xaaladda:
A. Fursad nabadeed:
Haddii heshiiska xabbad-joojinta la fuliyo, waxaa dhici karta in ay bilowdo marxalad cusub oo wada-hadal siyaasadeed ah oo u dhexeeya Israel, Falastiin iyo dalalka carabta.
B. Halista dagaal cusub:
Haddii dhinac kasta uu jebiyo heshiiska ama uu dareemo cadaadis milatari, diyaargarowga Mareykanka wuxuu isu beddeli karaa dagaal toos ah, taas oo wiiqi karta nabadda.
C. Dhibaatooyinka istaraatiijiga ah:
Khubarada qaar waxay sheegeen in dhaqdhaqaaqa diyaaradaha tanker uu yahay “calaamad siyaasadeed” oo Trump doonayo inuu ku muujiyo awood iyo xakameyn gobolka, gaar ahaan xilli uu doonayo inuu dib ugu soo laabto awoodda siyaasadeed ee Maraykanka.
6. Ujeedada dhabta ah – Difaac, deterrence ama cadaadis?
Ujeedada dhab ah ee dhaqdhaqaaqan ayaa weli ah mid aan si buuxda loo shaacin, balse falanqeeyayaasha amniga waxay ku qiyaaseen saddex sababood:
- Deterrence: In lagu cabsi-geliyo quwadaha gobolka sida Iran iyo kooxaha xulafada u ah.
- Taageero hawleed: In diyaaradaha dagaalka iyo kuwa gargaarku helaan shidaal hawada si hawlgalladu u sii socdaan.
- Cadaadis siyaasadeed: In la muujiyo awoodda Mareykanka xilli lagu guda jiro wada-xaajoodka nabadda.
7. Gunaanad – Bariga Dhexe oo mar kale isu diyaarinaya wejiyo cusub
Xabbad-joojinta uu Donald Trump gadaal ka riixayo, dirista ciidamada Mareykanka ee Israa’iil, iyo diyaaradaha KC-135 ee lagu daabulayo Qatar – dhammaantood waxay muujinayaan in Bariga Dhexe uu galay marxalad cusub oo isku dhafan nabad iyo cabsi dagaal.
In kasta oo heshiisyadu u muuqdaan kuwo nabadeed, haddana dhaqdhaqaaqyada milatari waxay sheegayaan in quwadaha waaweyn aysan weli kalsooni buuxda ku qabin mustaqbalka gobolka.
“Xabbad-joojintu waa hal tallaabo oo nabad loo maro, balse diyaaradaha KC-135 ee cirka ku socda waxay xasuusinayaan in dagaalku weli suurtagal yahay,” ayuu yiri mid ka mid ah falanqeeyayaasha Just Security.
Bariga Dhexe sidaa darteed wuxuu taagan yahay meel u dhaxaysa nabad iyo nafis dagaal, halka siyaasiyiinta iyo quwadaha caalamka ay isku dayayaan inay qori iyo qalinka isku miisaamaan.
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